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[aprssig] Forecast track for K6RPT-12

Mark Conner mconner1 at gmail.com
Mon Dec 3 20:48:56 UTC 2012


The usual jet charts won't be of much help, as CNSP-18 is flying well above
the jet stream.  The 100-110 kft winds will take a gradual turn to the
west, and I expect the balloon to cruise along roughly 50-52N across the
Atlantic.

Float altitude has been key to the forward speed observed.  If the float
had occurred at 98,000 ft, the forward speeds would have been about half
what they are now.  The fact that today's float is in the 110,000 ft range
has put the European coast within reach before the balloon or batteries
expire.  At night the balloon should descend to about 100,000 ft and slow
down, but then rise again tomorrow morning.  I would expect the balloon to
be within range of Irish APRS stations (tuned to 144.39) by 10-12 UTC
tomorrow (4th) and over Germany or Poland by late evening on the 4th.

Unfortunately once we leave the range of Newfoundland stations this
evening, we won't have further updates until we approach Europe - we'll go
well north of the Azores this time.  Far western French and British
stations may wish to tune to 144.39 tomorrow morning as it's possible the
balloon could drift farther south than expected.

73 de Mark N9XTN
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